Changes in extreme events over Asia for present and future climate conditions based on a modelling analysis of atmospheric circulation anomalies

Synoptic weather and larger scale circulation patterns are closely coupled have a major influence on regional extreme events. This study examines the role of circulations meteorology events for present future years over Asia with WRF model driven by HadGEM2 global boundary conditions that includes RCP4.5 scenarios based bicentennial transient simulation. The analysis was derived from 40 outputs spanning periods 1995–2005, 2015–2025, 2025–2035 2045–2055. For brevity these labelled as 2000, 2020, 2030, 2050 ‘represent’ decadal centred around named years. Model results were compared validated (using number skill metrics) against observations period showing is able to delineate observed features within 95% confidence level annual mean. To characterise quantify changes in patterns, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based conducted. Results indicate wintertime minimum temperatures projected increase 3–4 °C reference 2000. Furthermore, anti-cyclonic activity associated low PV anomalies high positive temperature may be key driver influences frequency duration heat waves droughts SA, SEA, EA NA regions Asia. Overall, modelling suggest significantly extremes future. Such impacts will implications well air pollution region both which require policy responses adjust changing climate.